When you start investing, it is common for us to be consumed of fear when the markets go down and with greed when the market goes up. Fluctuations are part of the investment journey. Are you ready to measure the risks involved? Here's a primer.

Fluctuation in returns is used as a measure of risk. Therefore, to measure risk, generally the periodic returns (daily / weekly / fortnightly / monthly) are first worked out, and then their fluctuation is measured. The fluctuation in returns can be assessed in relation to itself, or in relation to some other index. Accordingly, the following risk measures are commonly used. Variance

Suppose there were two schemes, with monthly returns as follows:

Scheme 1: 5%, 4%, 5%, 6%. Average=5%

Scheme 2: 5%, -10%, +20%, 5% Average=5%

Although both schemes have the same average returns, the periodic (monthly) returns fluctuate a lot more for Scheme 2. Variance measures the fluctuation in periodic returns of a scheme, as compared to its own average return. This can be easily calculated in MS Excel using the following function:

=var(range of cells where the periodic returns are calculated)

Variance as a measure of risk is relevant for both debt and equity schemes.

Standard Deviation

Like Variance, Standard Deviation too measures the fluctuation in periodic returns of a scheme in relation to its own average return. Mathematically, standard deviation is equal to the square root of variance.

This can be easily calculated in MS Excel using the following function:

=stdev(range of cells where the periodic returns are calculated)

Standard deviation as a measure of risk is relevant for both debt and equity schemes.

Beta

Beta is based on the Capital Assets Pricing Model, which states that there are two kinds of risk in investing in equities – systematic risk and non-systematic risk.

Systematic risk is integral to investing in the market; it cannot be avoided. For example, risks arising out of inflation, interest rates, political risks etc.

Non-systematic risk is unique to a company; the non-systematic risk in an equity portfolio can be minimized by diversification across companies. For example, risk arising out of change in management, product obsolescence etc.

Since non-systematic risk can be diversified away, investors need to be compensated only for systematic risk. This is measured by its Beta.

Beta measures the fluctuation in periodic returns in a scheme, as compared to fluctuation in periodic returns of a diversified stock index over the same period.

The diversified stock index, by definition, has a Beta of 1. Companies or schemes, whose beta is more than 1, are seen as more risky than the market. Beta less than 1 is indicative of a company or scheme that is less risky than the market.

Beta as a measure of risk is relevant only for equity schemes.

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